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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.89+5.72vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.48+6.39vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+5.85vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.82+3.00vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.49+3.56vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.25+3.27vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.70+0.50vs Predicted
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8Fordham University3.25+1.52vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University4.36-4.07vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.44-1.66vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.90-0.21vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-1.57vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia2.39-0.39vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.13-4.12vs Predicted
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15Duke University1.19+1.29vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.35-3.11vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96-6.56vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University0.89-0.87vs Predicted
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19Dartmouth College2.87-8.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.72College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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8.39Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.0Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.56George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.27SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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7.5Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.52Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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4.93Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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8.34U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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10.79University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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10.43University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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12.61University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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9.88Boston University3.130.0%1st Place
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16.29Duke University1.190.0%1st Place
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12.89Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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10.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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17.13North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
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10.46Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rees | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Zachary Hill | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Antoine Screve | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Nevin Snow | 16.6% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| William Crary | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 4.1% |
| Brendan Cook | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Vincent Miao | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 23.7% | 36.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 6.0% |
| Edmund Cooper | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 24.6% | 46.5% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.