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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.89+5.58vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.49+6.16vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.48+5.26vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.44+4.35vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.82+2.07vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.36-1.02vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.70+0.34vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+2.54vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.13+0.42vs Predicted
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10Fordham University3.25-0.95vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.90-0.48vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.25-2.60vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara3.06-3.30vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia1.31+2.02vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-6.50vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.35-3.40vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.87-6.43vs Predicted
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18Duke University1.19-1.72vs Predicted
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19North Carolina State University0.89-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.58College of Charleston3.890.1%1st Place
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8.16George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.26Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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7.07Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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4.98Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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7.34Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.54St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.0%1st Place
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9.42Boston University3.130.1%1st Place
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9.05Fordham University3.250.0%1st Place
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10.52University of Vermont2.900.0%1st Place
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9.4SUNY Maritime College3.250.0%1st Place
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9.7University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.0%1st Place
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16.02University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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12.6Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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10.57Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
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16.28Duke University1.190.0%1st Place
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16.66North Carolina State University0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rees | 8.4% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 5.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Nevin Snow | 17.5% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edmund Cooper | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Brendan Cook | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| William Crary | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Zachary Hill | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Julia Gowell | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 16.4% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Schofield | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 0.6% |
| Vincent Miao | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 24.7% | 27.4% |
| Mark Thompson | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 11.5% | 22.3% | 39.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.