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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.01+8.09vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+4.72vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.42+4.54vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+8.97vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.84+1.11vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.52+1.07vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia1.63+7.37vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.91+1.71vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.06vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-1.13vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.44-3.66vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.69-1.26vs Predicted
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13Duke University1.25+2.37vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University0.85+2.62vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.75-4.96vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.99-6.92vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.71-2.99vs Predicted
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18George Washington University3.41-10.65vs Predicted
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19Georgetown University3.47-12.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.09Brown University3.010.0%1st Place
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6.72U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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7.54Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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12.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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6.11College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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7.07Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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14.37University of Virginia1.630.0%1st Place
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9.71Old Dominion University2.910.1%1st Place
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10.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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8.87St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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7.34Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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10.74SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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15.37Duke University1.250.0%1st Place
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16.62North Carolina State University0.850.0%1st Place
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10.04Dartmouth College2.750.0%1st Place
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9.08University of Vermont2.990.0%1st Place
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14.01Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
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7.35George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.93Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Elstrodt | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Gary Prieto | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Hannah Polster | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| Jack Cusick | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Singh | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| Joseph David | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Sterling Henken | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Axel Sly | 7.1% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Comerford | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth O'Connor | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 24.0% | 21.7% |
| Kara Wheeler | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 19.8% | 43.1% |
| Erik Weis | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Megan Yeigh | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 11.9% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Sean Golden | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.