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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+9.11vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.84+3.92vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.01+6.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.63+2.58vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.52+2.18vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia1.63+8.06vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.44+0.33vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.91+1.65vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.42-1.82vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-1.17vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.47-3.86vs Predicted
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12Duke University1.25+3.61vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.99-4.13vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-3.69vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.69-4.81vs Predicted
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16George Washington University3.41-8.70vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-4.23vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University-0.24+0.12vs Predicted
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19Cornell University1.71-5.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.11Dartmouth College2.750.0%1st Place
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5.92College of Charleston3.840.1%1st Place
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9.16Brown University3.010.0%1st Place
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6.58U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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7.18Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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14.06University of Virginia1.630.0%1st Place
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7.33Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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9.65Old Dominion University2.910.1%1st Place
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7.18Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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7.14Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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15.61Duke University1.250.0%1st Place
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8.87University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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10.19SUNY Maritime College2.690.0%1st Place
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7.3George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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12.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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18.12North Carolina State University-0.240.0%1st Place
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13.67Cornell University1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Weis | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Jack Cusick | 12.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Elstrodt | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Gary Prieto | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Singh | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 19.0% | 7.4% |
| Axel Sly | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph David | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Polster | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carolyn Smith | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Sean Golden | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth O'Connor | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 30.9% | 13.4% |
| Megan Yeigh | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Kyle Comerford | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Kai Friesecke | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 2.3% |
| Matthew Dockstader | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 12.0% | 71.5% |
| Daniel Birmingham | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 13.7% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.