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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Oregon State University1.40+2.32vs Predicted
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2University of Washington2.25+0.25vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.56+1.75vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.11-0.33vs Predicted
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5Oregon State University0.21+0.16vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University1.03-2.13vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University-0.29-0.93vs Predicted
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10Oregon State University-2.08-1.82vs Predicted
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11University of Oregon-1.60-3.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32Oregon State University1.400.2%1st Place
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2.25University of Washington2.250.4%1st Place
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4.75University of Washington0.560.1%1st Place
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3.67University of Washington1.110.1%1st Place
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5.16Oregon State University0.210.1%1st Place
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3.87Western Washington University1.030.1%1st Place
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6.07Northwestern University-0.290.0%1st Place
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8.18Oregon State University-2.080.0%1st Place
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7.74University of Oregon-1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | 18.5% | 19.2% | 19.4% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kris Thompson | 38.0% | 27.5% | 16.9% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Bartels | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 16.4% | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| Kate Flanagan | 13.5% | 17.0% | 17.5% | 18.4% | 16.1% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Wilkinson | 5.2% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 19.4% | 18.0% | 10.4% | 1.8% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 12.7% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 16.4% | 20.0% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Charles Tokowitz | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 17.6% | 30.4% | 17.3% | 4.4% |
| Abby Schamp | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 24.4% | 58.9% |
| Sarah Raulston | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 40.0% | 34.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.