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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.34+3.24vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.53+1.66vs Predicted
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3Brown University0.41+3.82vs Predicted
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4Harvard University0.45+2.90vs Predicted
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5Brown University-0.07+3.27vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College0.73-0.28vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.80-0.85vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.22+0.66vs Predicted
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9Harvard University-0.46+0.37vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College-0.25-1.15vs Predicted
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11Harvard University-0.20-2.28vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.08-7.05vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.30-1.53vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.11-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.24Tufts University1.3416.4%1st Place
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3.66Tufts University1.5321.9%1st Place
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6.82Brown University0.417.1%1st Place
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6.9Harvard University0.456.1%1st Place
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8.27Brown University-0.074.0%1st Place
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5.72Bowdoin College0.738.5%1st Place
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6.15Tufts University0.808.6%1st Place
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8.66University of New Hampshire-0.223.0%1st Place
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9.37Harvard University-0.463.0%1st Place
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8.85Bowdoin College-0.253.2%1st Place
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8.72Harvard University-0.203.2%1st Place
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4.95Brown University1.0812.0%1st Place
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11.47University of New Hampshire-1.301.5%1st Place
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11.22University of New Hampshire-1.111.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter McFarland | 16.4% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Devon Owen | 21.9% | 18.5% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Collins | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Theresa Straw | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| William Baker | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 4.1% |
| Shea McGrath | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Blake Vogel | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Marykate Hanus | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 5.2% |
| Caroline Straw | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% |
| Owen Warren | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 6.3% |
| Olivia Hogan-Lopez | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 5.5% |
| Julian Dahiya | 12.0% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ian Peterson | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 18.5% | 37.8% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 20.3% | 28.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.