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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Oregon State University1.40+2.30vs Predicted
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2University of Washington2.25+0.25vs Predicted
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3Oregon State University0.21+2.33vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University1.03-1.15vs Predicted
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6University of Washington1.11-2.31vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University-0.29-1.01vs Predicted
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8University of Oregon-1.60-0.26vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.56-4.33vs Predicted
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11Oregon State University-2.08-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.3Oregon State University1.400.2%1st Place
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2.25University of Washington2.250.4%1st Place
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5.33Oregon State University0.210.0%1st Place
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3.85Western Washington University1.030.1%1st Place
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3.69University of Washington1.110.1%1st Place
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5.99Northwestern University-0.290.0%1st Place
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7.74University of Oregon-1.600.0%1st Place
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4.67University of Washington0.560.1%1st Place
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8.2Oregon State University-2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | 18.2% | 19.2% | 20.3% | 16.0% | 14.4% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kris Thompson | 38.3% | 27.1% | 17.3% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Wilkinson | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 21.0% | 22.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 11.7% | 14.6% | 17.6% | 19.5% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Kate Flanagan | 14.6% | 17.3% | 18.0% | 16.1% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Charles Tokowitz | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 17.6% | 30.3% | 16.7% | 3.5% |
| Sarah Raulston | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 10.7% | 41.7% | 33.6% |
| Colin Bartels | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 19.6% | 18.1% | 13.4% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Abby Schamp | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 7.2% | 24.6% | 59.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.