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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+4.90vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.72+5.21vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.74+4.23vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.79+3.22vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+2.74vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.67+1.58vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.71+0.45vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.70+2.84vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.70-1.70vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.49-1.82vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.72-0.16vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.84-5.08vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College3.18-3.72vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-6.97vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.49-3.21vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.89-2.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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7.21Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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7.23Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.22Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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7.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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7.58Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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7.45Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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10.84Eckerd College2.700.0%1st Place
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7.3Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.18Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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10.84George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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6.92University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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9.28Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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7.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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11.79Connecticut College2.490.0%1st Place
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13.47SUNY Maritime College1.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Fanning | 11.3% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Kiss | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| Will La Dow | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Chase Quinn | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Augie Dale | 7.1% | 4.6% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Timothy Siemers | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 12.4% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| John Rolander | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 12.0% |
| Rachel Bryer | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
| Ty Ingram | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Charlotte List | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| John Nothacker | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 16.3% | 43.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.