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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.01+7.16vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.94+6.59vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.32+8.02vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+6.03vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.06+2.97vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.31vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+0.37vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-0.80vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.04-0.44vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.81-0.91vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.73-1.34vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.98+0.30vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.13-4.99vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.23+0.55vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.60-8.83vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.72-6.38vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island3.05-8.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.16Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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8.59Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.02George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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7.97Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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6.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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7.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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7.2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.56Tufts University3.040.0%1st Place
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9.09Boston University2.810.0%1st Place
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9.66Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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12.3Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
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8.01Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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14.55SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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6.17Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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9.62Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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8.4University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Clarida | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 0.9% |
| Michael Gemperline | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 8.3% |
| Kayla Ellis | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 4.5% |
| Erin Mullins | 6.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Charles Miller | 10.0% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| David Larson | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Casey Gowrie | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Charles Welsh | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.1% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| Emilia Clementi | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| James Keegan | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 13.9% | 49.2% |
| Nick Sertl | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.