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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.13+6.71vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.32+8.97vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.01+5.34vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.72+5.58vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.94+3.48vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.60+0.33vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+0.41vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.04+0.13vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.05-0.55vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.73-0.63vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.81-1.66vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.06-3.77vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-6.73vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-3.86vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-7.70vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.23-1.43vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.98-4.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.71Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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10.97George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.34Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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9.58Eckerd College2.720.1%1st Place
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8.48Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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6.33Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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8.13Tufts University3.040.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University2.730.0%1st Place
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9.34Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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8.23Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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6.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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7.3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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14.57SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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12.37Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 7.0% |
| Russell Clarida | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% |
| Michael Gemperline | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Nick Sertl | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| David Larson | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Casey Gowrie | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Erin Mullins | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Charles Miller | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Kayla Ellis | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.7% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| James Keegan | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 50.5% |
| Emilia Clementi | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 17.7% | 17.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.