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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+6.18vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.13+5.83vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.32+8.00vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.72+5.58vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+4.79vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.60+0.27vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.33vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.01+0.19vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.04-0.46vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.81-0.93vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.94-2.18vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.06-3.79vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.98-0.57vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island3.05-5.62vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-8.79vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.23-1.46vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.73-7.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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7.83Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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11.0George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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9.58Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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9.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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6.27Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.19Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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8.54Tufts University3.040.1%1st Place
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9.07Boston University2.810.0%1st Place
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8.82Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.21Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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12.43Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
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8.38University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
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6.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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14.54SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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9.62Old Dominion University2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Larson | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Wade Wagner | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 9.3% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% |
| Kayla Ellis | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% |
| Nick Sertl | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Liam McCarthy | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Russell Clarida | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Casey Gowrie | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Charles Welsh | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 2.4% |
| Michael Gemperline | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| Erin Mullins | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Emilia Clementi | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Charles Miller | 12.1% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| James Keegan | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 14.7% | 47.0% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.