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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.13+6.74vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+4.10vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College2.72+6.48vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.05+4.36vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.04+3.09vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.94+2.80vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College3.06+1.26vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.01+0.21vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.98+3.48vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-0.13vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.73-1.34vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.32-0.93vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-5.51vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.23+0.54vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.60-8.81vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-8.63vs Predicted
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17Boston University2.81-7.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.74Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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6.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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9.48Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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8.36University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
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8.09Tufts University3.040.1%1st Place
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8.8Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.26Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.21Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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12.48Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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9.66Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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11.07George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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7.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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14.54SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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6.19Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.37St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.29Boston University2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Charles Miller | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Casey Gowrie | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| Michael Gemperline | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Erin Mullins | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Russell Clarida | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Emilia Clementi | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 18.3% |
| Kayla Ellis | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Wade Wagner | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 9.0% |
| David Larson | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| James Keegan | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 14.8% | 48.2% |
| Nick Sertl | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Liam McCarthy | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Charles Welsh | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.