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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.05+7.04vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+5.25vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+6.93vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.72+5.60vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.73+4.30vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.01+2.57vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.04+1.33vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-0.81vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.60-2.69vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College3.06-1.89vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.13-2.90vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.94-3.33vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.32-1.72vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.98-1.56vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.81-5.83vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-9.82vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.23-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
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7.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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9.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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9.6Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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9.3Old Dominion University2.730.0%1st Place
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8.57Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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8.33Tufts University3.040.1%1st Place
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7.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.31Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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8.11Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.1Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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8.67Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.28George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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12.44Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
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9.17Boston University2.810.0%1st Place
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6.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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14.53SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Armstrong | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| David Larson | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Kayla Ellis | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.4% |
| Russell Clarida | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Casey Gowrie | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Nick Sertl | 9.3% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Erin Mullins | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Michael Gemperline | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% |
| Emilia Clementi | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Charles Miller | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| James Keegan | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 14.2% | 48.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.