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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.60+4.85vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.32+8.93vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.81+6.02vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.94+4.59vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.94vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.06+2.23vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.01+1.21vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+1.64vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.04-0.66vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.13-2.34vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-3.64vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.73-2.62vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72-3.44vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island3.05-5.74vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.23-0.66vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College2.72-6.57vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.98-4.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.85Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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10.93George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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9.02Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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8.59Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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5.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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8.23Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.21Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.1%1st Place
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8.34Tufts University3.040.1%1st Place
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7.66Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.38Old Dominion University2.730.0%1st Place
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9.56Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.0%1st Place
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8.26University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
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14.34SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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9.43Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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12.27Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sertl | 12.2% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 7.7% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| Michael Gemperline | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Charles Miller | 12.3% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Erin Mullins | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Russell Clarida | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Kayla Ellis | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
| Casey Gowrie | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Liam McCarthy | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% |
| Joseph Paggi | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| James Keegan | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 13.6% | 47.3% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Emilia Clementi | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.