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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.04+7.01vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.01+6.17vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College3.06+5.09vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.73+5.51vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.05+2.93vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.32+5.14vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.60-1.00vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.94+0.38vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.13-1.00vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-0.29vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.23+3.42vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.98+0.17vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-5.75vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72-4.48vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.81-5.93vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-9.91vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.72-7.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.01Tufts University3.040.1%1st Place
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8.17Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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8.09Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.51Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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7.93University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
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11.14George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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6.0Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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8.38Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.0Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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9.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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14.42SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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12.17Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
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7.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.0%1st Place
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9.07Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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6.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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9.53Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Gowrie | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Russell Clarida | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Erin Mullins | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.7% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.1% |
| Wade Wagner | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 7.9% |
| Nick Sertl | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Michael Gemperline | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Kayla Ellis | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 4.1% |
| James Keegan | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 49.8% |
| Emilia Clementi | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 11.7% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Joseph Paggi | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Charles Miller | 10.3% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.