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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.06+6.89vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.05+6.00vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.13+4.78vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.72+5.48vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+1.98vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+4.05vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.01+1.26vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.98+3.93vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-2.78vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.32+0.87vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.04-2.68vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72-2.63vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.94-4.35vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.73-4.48vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.81-5.96vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.23-1.51vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.60-10.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.89Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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8.0University of Rhode Island3.050.1%1st Place
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7.78Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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9.48Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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6.98St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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8.26Stanford University3.010.1%1st Place
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11.93Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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10.87George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.32Tufts University3.040.1%1st Place
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9.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.0%1st Place
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8.65Roger Williams University2.940.1%1st Place
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9.52Old Dominion University2.730.0%1st Place
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9.04Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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14.49SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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6.14Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Mullins | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Kayla Ellis | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 4.5% |
| Russell Clarida | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Emilia Clementi | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 16.6% | 15.8% |
| Charles Miller | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Wade Wagner | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 9.2% |
| Casey Gowrie | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Joseph Paggi | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
| Michael Gemperline | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 4.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 3.4% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| James Keegan | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 13.9% | 46.9% |
| Nick Sertl | 9.8% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.