Race 1A

midweek-firefly-april-20

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

88.9%
Within 2 Positions
0.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
John Rolander 28.7% 26.5% 17.5% 13.1% 8.0% 4.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Reed Lorimer 8.1% 11.4% 14.9% 18.0% 18.2% 15.5% 8.9% 4.2% 0.8%
Alexander Tong 23.4% 21.7% 19.4% 15.2% 12.2% 5.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Jackson McCoy 22.0% 20.4% 20.1% 15.9% 12.6% 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Colby Vickerson 5.3% 6.9% 10.8% 12.8% 13.8% 18.2% 18.2% 10.9% 3.1%
Pierre DuPont 5.5% 5.8% 8.3% 12.2% 14.2% 18.4% 22.8% 10.4% 2.4%
Emily Croteau 4.4% 4.9% 5.6% 7.4% 14.5% 19.7% 24.1% 15.0% 4.4%
Nicolas Bulgarides 1.4% 1.2% 1.9% 2.9% 3.9% 6.6% 10.2% 33.3% 38.6%
Kristina Schneider 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 2.5% 2.6% 5.5% 10.1% 24.9% 50.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.