Race 4A

midweek-firefly-april-20

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Reed Lorimer 10.6% 13.3% 13.7% 16.7% 19.4% 13.7% 9.4% 2.6% 0.6%
Emily Croteau 3.5% 4.1% 5.5% 9.3% 12.6% 19.8% 23.1% 16.6% 5.5%
Jackson McCoy 18.7% 20.7% 20.6% 17.7% 12.7% 6.4% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Alexander Tong 23.5% 22.2% 22.1% 14.9% 9.7% 5.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1%
John Rolander 31.1% 26.5% 16.1% 13.4% 7.3% 3.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Colby Vickerson 4.9% 6.5% 9.0% 11.5% 15.3% 19.6% 20.4% 10.3% 2.5%
Pierre DuPont 5.1% 4.7% 9.1% 11.4% 16.0% 19.8% 21.0% 10.5% 2.4%
Kristina Schneider 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 2.0% 3.3% 5.5% 9.5% 26.0% 50.0%
Nicolas Bulgarides 1.5% 1.2% 2.1% 3.1% 3.7% 6.1% 10.8% 32.6% 38.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.