Race 5A

midweek-firefly-april-20

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Alexander Tong 23.0% 21.9% 20.5% 14.2% 11.1% 6.2% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Reed Lorimer 8.6% 11.5% 14.0% 17.6% 18.1% 15.6% 10.1% 4.0% 0.5%
Emily Croteau 3.8% 5.1% 5.8% 10.0% 14.0% 17.1% 25.2% 15.0% 4.0%
John Rolander 30.4% 25.5% 18.4% 13.3% 8.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Pierre DuPont 5.4% 6.7% 10.0% 12.9% 13.7% 17.6% 20.2% 10.4% 3.1%
Jackson McCoy 21.4% 20.2% 20.2% 17.1% 12.1% 6.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Colby Vickerson 5.5% 5.9% 8.3% 9.6% 15.5% 22.7% 18.2% 11.3% 3.0%
Nicolas Bulgarides 1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 3.5% 3.5% 5.8% 12.0% 32.8% 38.3%
Kristina Schneider 0.9% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8% 4.0% 5.3% 8.6% 25.4% 51.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.