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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.34+3.23vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.08+2.96vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College0.73+2.66vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.53-0.21vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College-0.25+3.76vs Predicted
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6Brown University0.41+0.89vs Predicted
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7Harvard University0.45-0.07vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.80-1.83vs Predicted
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9Harvard University-0.46+0.41vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-1.30+1.58vs Predicted
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11Brown University-0.07-2.81vs Predicted
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12Harvard University-0.20-3.31vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-0.22-4.22vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.11-3.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.23Tufts University1.3417.2%1st Place
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4.96Brown University1.0812.9%1st Place
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5.66Bowdoin College0.739.3%1st Place
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3.79Tufts University1.5319.4%1st Place
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8.76Bowdoin College-0.253.2%1st Place
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6.89Brown University0.416.1%1st Place
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6.93Harvard University0.456.5%1st Place
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6.17Tufts University0.808.6%1st Place
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9.41Harvard University-0.463.0%1st Place
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11.58University of New Hampshire-1.301.2%1st Place
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8.19Brown University-0.074.0%1st Place
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8.69Harvard University-0.203.6%1st Place
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8.78University of New Hampshire-0.223.5%1st Place
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10.97University of New Hampshire-1.111.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter McFarland | 17.2% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julian Dahiya | 12.9% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Shea McGrath | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Devon Owen | 19.4% | 18.6% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Warren | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
| Gabby Collins | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Theresa Straw | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Blake Vogel | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Caroline Straw | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 10.5% |
| Ian Peterson | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 17.9% | 37.8% |
| William Baker | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.2% |
| Olivia Hogan-Lopez | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Marykate Hanus | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 6.0% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 19.6% | 27.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.