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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.06+8.05vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+5.33vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.22+5.46vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.24+0.68vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.52+2.14vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.15+2.77vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.42+5.14vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.80+1.99vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.73-2.69vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.89-0.20vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.53-3.73vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+1.57vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.21vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.54-2.79vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.72-4.49vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.56-1.03vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.24-8.75vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.87-0.88vs Predicted
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19University of Miami0.76-1.71vs Predicted
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20Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-7.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.05Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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8.46U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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4.68Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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7.14Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.77Stanford University3.150.0%1st Place
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12.14Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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9.99University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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6.31Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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9.8Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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7.27Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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13.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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13.21SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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11.21University of South Florida2.540.0%1st Place
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10.51George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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14.97University of Wisconsin1.560.0%1st Place
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8.25Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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17.12University of Virginia0.870.0%1st Place
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17.29University of Miami0.760.0%1st Place
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12.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Dorr | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Markus Edegran | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter Hogan | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Baird | 17.2% | 14.8% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Holz | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Marshall | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Charles Sinks | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Williford | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 4.1% |
| John Lawless | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 3.2% |
| Michael Trebilcock | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Carolyn Keck | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 16.0% | 11.6% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Cornell | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 12.4% | 20.5% | 34.4% |
| Benjamin Ringrose | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 11.5% | 20.0% | 38.4% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.