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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+6.30vs Predicted
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2Boston College3.73+4.33vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.06+6.23vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.72+6.59vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.24-0.36vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+7.49vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.80+3.50vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.22+0.22vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.15-0.47vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida2.54+1.25vs Predicted
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11Fordham University3.52-3.67vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.09vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.89-2.95vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.24-5.71vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-2.29vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.53-8.91vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.56-1.96vs Predicted
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18University of Miami0.76-0.62vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia0.87-1.96vs Predicted
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20Harvard University2.42-8.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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6.33Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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9.23Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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10.59George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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4.64Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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13.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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10.5University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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8.22U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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8.53Stanford University3.150.1%1st Place
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11.25University of South Florida2.540.0%1st Place
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7.33Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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13.09SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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10.05Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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8.29Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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12.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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7.09Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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15.04University of Wisconsin1.560.0%1st Place
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17.38University of Miami0.760.0%1st Place
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17.04University of Virginia0.870.0%1st Place
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11.9Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Charles Sinks | 11.3% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.9% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 4.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Peter Hogan | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| William Marshall | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Trebilcock | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Will Holz | 9.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| John Lawless | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Holley | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Carolyn Keck | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 14.7% | 16.1% | 11.9% |
| Benjamin Ringrose | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 21.1% | 38.5% |
| Jordan Cornell | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 21.5% | 33.6% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.