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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.64vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.15+6.69vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.53+4.27vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+3.33vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.06+4.04vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.72+4.64vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.52+0.41vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.42+3.57vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.54+2.21vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.73-3.62vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.89-1.19vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-1.62vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.14+0.31vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.24-5.69vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.22-6.63vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.56-0.97vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-3.71vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-5.13vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia0.87-1.94vs Predicted
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20University of Miami0.76-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.64Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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8.69Stanford University3.150.1%1st Place
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7.27Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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9.04Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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10.64George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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7.41Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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11.57Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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11.21University of South Florida2.540.0%1st Place
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6.38Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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9.81Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.38University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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13.31SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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8.31Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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15.03University of Wisconsin1.560.0%1st Place
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13.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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12.87Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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17.06University of Virginia0.870.0%1st Place
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17.39University of Miami0.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 16.6% | 16.8% | 14.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Marshall | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Will Holz | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Michael Trebilcock | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Charles Sinks | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| John Lawless | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 4.3% |
| Cameron Holley | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hogan | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Carolyn Keck | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 16.7% | 11.8% |
| Austin Neuman | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 4.3% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 3.9% |
| Jordan Cornell | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 22.8% | 32.8% |
| Benjamin Ringrose | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 20.5% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.