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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.72vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.06+7.09vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+10.45vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.52+3.22vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.72+5.49vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida2.54+5.42vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.22+1.69vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-0.84vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.80+1.05vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.15-1.32vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.53-3.74vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.14+1.12vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.89-2.87vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-1.30vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.56+0.02vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.42-4.29vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.24-8.80vs Predicted
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18University of Miami0.76-0.61vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia0.87-1.99vs Predicted
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20Boston College3.73-13.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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9.09Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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13.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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7.22Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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10.49George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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11.42University of South Florida2.540.0%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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7.16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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10.05University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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8.68Stanford University3.150.0%1st Place
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7.26Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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13.12SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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10.13Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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12.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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15.02University of Wisconsin1.560.0%1st Place
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11.71Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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8.2Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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17.39University of Miami0.760.0%1st Place
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17.01University of Virginia0.870.0%1st Place
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6.48Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 18.4% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Austin Neuman | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 5.1% |
| Will Holz | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Michael Trebilcock | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Peter Hogan | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| William Marshall | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Williford | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Lawless | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| Carolyn Keck | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 19.2% | 11.1% |
| Jackson Wagner | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Ringrose | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 21.5% | 38.0% |
| Jordan Cornell | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 20.9% | 33.6% |
| Charles Sinks | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.