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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.22+7.40vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.15+6.68vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.53+4.31vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.73+2.34vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.24-0.36vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+4.35vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.24+1.58vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.42+3.60vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02+4.27vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-2.74vs Predicted
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11University of Miami0.76+6.33vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.89-2.00vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida2.54-1.38vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.52-6.88vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.72-4.48vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University3.06-6.90vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-4.35vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.14-5.00vs Predicted
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19University of Virginia0.87-1.92vs Predicted
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20University of Wisconsin1.56-4.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.4U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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8.68Stanford University3.150.1%1st Place
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7.31Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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6.34Boston College3.730.1%1st Place
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4.64Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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10.35University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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8.58Tufts University3.240.0%1st Place
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11.6Harvard University2.420.0%1st Place
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13.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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7.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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17.33University of Miami0.760.0%1st Place
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10.0Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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11.62University of South Florida2.540.0%1st Place
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7.12Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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10.52George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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9.1Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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12.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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13.0SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
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17.08University of Virginia0.870.0%1st Place
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15.15University of Wisconsin1.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Hogan | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| William Marshall | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Williford | 8.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Sinks | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.9% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Cameron Holley | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Wagner | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 4.4% |
| Markus Edegran | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Ringrose | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 11.2% | 21.0% | 39.8% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Michael Trebilcock | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Will Holz | 7.9% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Roger Dorr | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| John Lawless | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 3.5% |
| Jordan Cornell | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 22.4% | 32.7% |
| Carolyn Keck | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 16.4% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.