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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College0.73+4.72vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.53+1.74vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.34+1.19vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.80+2.02vs Predicted
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5Brown University0.41+2.01vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College-0.25+2.72vs Predicted
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7Brown University-0.07+1.38vs Predicted
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8Harvard University0.45-1.24vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.08-4.11vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.22-1.27vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-1.30+0.43vs Predicted
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12Harvard University-0.46-2.55vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.11-1.89vs Predicted
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14Harvard University-0.20-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.72Bowdoin College0.739.8%1st Place
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3.74Tufts University1.5321.2%1st Place
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4.19Tufts University1.3416.8%1st Place
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6.02Tufts University0.808.1%1st Place
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7.01Brown University0.415.7%1st Place
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8.72Bowdoin College-0.253.6%1st Place
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8.38Brown University-0.073.9%1st Place
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6.76Harvard University0.456.7%1st Place
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4.89Brown University1.0813.0%1st Place
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8.73University of New Hampshire-0.223.1%1st Place
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11.43University of New Hampshire-1.301.5%1st Place
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9.45Harvard University-0.462.5%1st Place
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11.11University of New Hampshire-1.110.9%1st Place
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8.86Harvard University-0.203.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea McGrath | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Devon Owen | 21.2% | 18.6% | 15.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walter McFarland | 16.8% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Blake Vogel | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Gabby Collins | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Owen Warren | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 4.9% |
| William Baker | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Theresa Straw | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Julian Dahiya | 13.0% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marykate Hanus | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 5.5% |
| Ian Peterson | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 16.9% | 37.2% |
| Caroline Straw | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 10.5% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 18.2% | 29.1% |
| Olivia Hogan-Lopez | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.