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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+2.82vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+2.86vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.61+1.98vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.38+1.73vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.49+3.21vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.33-0.19vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia1.31+1.70vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.74-3.40vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University1.71-1.54vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.78-2.68vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.09-1.78vs Predicted
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12Queen's University0.17-0.36vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo-1.24+1.37vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.11-2.28vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University-0.72-1.39vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.92-2.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.2%1st Place
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4.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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4.98Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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5.73George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.21University of Pennsylvania1.490.0%1st Place
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5.81U. S. Naval Academy2.330.1%1st Place
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8.7University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
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4.6Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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7.46Christopher Newport University1.710.1%1st Place
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7.32Old Dominion University1.780.1%1st Place
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9.22Cornell University1.090.0%1st Place
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11.64Queen's University0.170.0%1st Place
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14.37University of Buffalo-1.240.0%1st Place
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11.72Columbia University0.110.0%1st Place
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13.61Monmouth University-0.720.0%1st Place
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13.95SUNY Stony Brook-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 20.1% | 17.5% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Carter | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 12.7% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| India Johnstone | 7.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Garth | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Hannah Hughes | 8.5% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Gowell | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 14.3% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Attardi | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Grace Mason | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Claire Riedman | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Christina Black | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 18.0% | 17.0% | 10.8% | 4.0% |
| Emily Hann | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 20.7% | 42.4% |
| Elizabeth Siegal | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 19.0% | 16.5% | 11.0% | 4.4% |
| Amanda Nuse | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 12.2% | 19.9% | 27.2% | 20.3% |
| Jessica Kurlander | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 18.6% | 25.8% | 28.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.