Race 8A

maisa-womens

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Adelaide Ferguson 11.4% 13.2% 12.9% 12.1% 10.1% 11.3% 7.6% 7.3% 6.9% 3.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Kate Mezzetti 14.0% 12.9% 14.8% 11.4% 10.2% 9.7% 8.3% 7.7% 4.8% 3.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bailey Carter 13.2% 10.5% 11.7% 14.1% 10.8% 9.8% 10.4% 7.1% 5.3% 4.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Amanda Attardi 4.2% 5.3% 5.0% 6.8% 7.7% 6.2% 8.0% 10.2% 11.9% 10.8% 11.7% 6.7% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Miranda Bakos 10.7% 11.8% 11.4% 11.6% 12.2% 10.1% 8.8% 8.4% 6.6% 4.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elizabeth Siegal 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 2.0% 3.3% 4.7% 5.6% 10.6% 13.2% 18.0% 18.0% 12.6% 4.7%
Carolyn Smith 18.4% 17.0% 14.0% 11.6% 10.8% 9.9% 7.5% 4.4% 4.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hannah Hughes 9.1% 10.3% 8.8% 11.0% 9.8% 10.0% 11.0% 9.1% 8.3% 6.2% 3.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grace Mason 5.6% 6.0% 6.1% 5.6% 6.9% 8.1% 10.6% 11.9% 11.7% 6.8% 9.1% 7.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Julia Gowell 3.1% 4.0% 3.4% 4.5% 5.0% 4.9% 6.2% 8.3% 9.3% 14.3% 13.7% 11.6% 7.1% 3.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Claire Riedman 3.0% 2.8% 3.6% 2.8% 5.2% 6.1% 4.6% 7.4% 7.4% 12.7% 13.3% 12.4% 11.3% 5.2% 2.0% 0.2%
Emily Hann 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 2.6% 1.4% 5.2% 7.8% 14.5% 21.2% 42.5%
Christina Black 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 3.1% 3.5% 2.5% 4.8% 7.7% 9.4% 13.4% 18.1% 18.5% 9.9% 3.5%
Caroline Garth 4.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.7% 7.3% 7.5% 8.7% 9.2% 10.2% 12.3% 10.0% 10.0% 5.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Amanda Nuse 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 2.3% 4.2% 7.7% 12.1% 18.3% 26.7% 21.1%
Jessica Kurlander 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 1.4% 1.2% 2.5% 3.8% 6.1% 11.0% 17.5% 25.9% 27.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.