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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.89+7.03vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+4.35vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+3.98vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.73+1.51vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.16+5.51vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.15+1.62vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.37vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin2.85+0.28vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.65+0.25vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University4.01-5.37vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.03-3.05vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.99-0.80vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.10+0.54vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.38-7.34vs Predicted
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15McGill University0.54-0.46vs Predicted
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16University of Florida2.50-6.39vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut-1.51-0.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.03Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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6.98St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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5.51University of Vermont3.730.1%1st Place
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10.51Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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7.62Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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5.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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8.28University of Wisconsin2.850.1%1st Place
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9.25SUNY Maritime College2.650.0%1st Place
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4.63Old Dominion University4.010.2%1st Place
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7.95Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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11.2Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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13.54Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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6.66U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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14.54McGill University0.540.0%1st Place
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9.61University of Florida2.500.0%1st Place
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16.72University of Connecticut-1.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Andrews | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 9.1% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Olin Davis | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryann Hall | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Fox | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Dan Crouch Crouch | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 16.0% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Towill | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 14.6% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 12.2% | 28.3% | 26.0% | 4.7% |
| Taylor Vann | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Fohl | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 19.7% | 45.7% | 8.9% |
| Caroline Wright | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Doug Harrison | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 8.9% | 85.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.