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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+5.96vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.70vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.19+4.31vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.73+1.59vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.38+1.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+0.72vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University4.01-2.32vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.89+0.21vs Predicted
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9Princeton University1.10+4.66vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.15-2.66vs Predicted
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11University of Florida2.50-1.26vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.03-4.22vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.65-3.71vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.16-3.17vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.99-3.80vs Predicted
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16McGill University0.54-1.30vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut-1.51-0.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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5.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.31University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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5.59University of Vermont3.730.1%1st Place
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6.55U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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6.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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4.68Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.21Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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13.66Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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7.34Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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9.74University of Florida2.500.0%1st Place
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7.78Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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9.29SUNY Maritime College2.650.0%1st Place
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10.83Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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11.2Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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14.7McGill University0.540.0%1st Place
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16.73University of Connecticut-1.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Liberty | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 11.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lee | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Olin Davis | 12.4% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 14.4% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 13.2% | 27.9% | 26.6% | 3.6% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Wright | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Ian Towill | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Dan Crouch Crouch | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Ryann Hall | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 5.0% | 0.2% |
| John Croll | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 16.6% | 15.4% | 6.1% | 0.4% |
| Natalie Fohl | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 19.2% | 46.9% | 9.3% |
| Doug Harrison | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 8.8% | 86.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.