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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+4.62vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+4.41vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.73+2.48vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.15+3.46vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+1.84vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin3.19+1.38vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.16+3.63vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.03-0.35vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University4.01-4.21vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.65-1.03vs Predicted
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11University of Florida2.50-1.38vs Predicted
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12Columbia University1.99-0.93vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.38-6.29vs Predicted
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14McGill University0.54+0.44vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.89-6.71vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-0.98vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut-1.51-0.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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5.48University of Vermont3.730.1%1st Place
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7.46Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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6.84St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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7.38University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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10.63Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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7.65Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.79Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.97SUNY Maritime College2.650.0%1st Place
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9.62University of Florida2.500.0%1st Place
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11.07Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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6.71U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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14.44McGill University0.540.0%1st Place
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8.29Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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15.02Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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16.63University of Connecticut-1.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 12.7% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olin Davis | 11.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lee | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryann Hall | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Ian Towill | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 12.7% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dan Crouch Crouch | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Wright | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 20.0% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Taylor Vann | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Fohl | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 9.6% | 30.3% | 35.9% | 6.2% |
| Vincent Andrews | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 24.8% | 43.2% | 13.1% |
| Doug Harrison | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 11.8% | 80.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.