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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.15+6.17vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.89+6.17vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University4.01+1.67vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.03+3.86vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.65+3.88vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+1.17vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.38-0.39vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-1.59vs Predicted
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9University of Florida2.50+0.73vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin3.19-2.85vs Predicted
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11University of Connecticut-1.51+5.53vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.73-6.50vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.16-2.28vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.99-2.74vs Predicted
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15McGill University0.54-0.68vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-0.95vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-11.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.17Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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8.17Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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4.67Old Dominion University4.010.2%1st Place
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7.86Boston University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.88SUNY Maritime College2.650.0%1st Place
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7.17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.1%1st Place
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6.61U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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9.73University of Florida2.500.0%1st Place
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7.15University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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16.53University of Connecticut-1.510.0%1st Place
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5.5University of Vermont3.730.1%1st Place
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10.72Fordham University2.160.0%1st Place
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11.26Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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14.32McGill University0.540.0%1st Place
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15.05Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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5.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Tamblyn | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 16.4% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Towill | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dan Crouch Crouch | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Liberty | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Wright | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Lee | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Doug Harrison | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 4.3% | 11.1% | 79.9% |
| Olin Davis | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryann Hall | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 16.8% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| John Croll | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 19.1% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Natalie Fohl | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 31.2% | 32.3% | 6.7% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 6.6% | 22.1% | 47.1% | 12.8% |
| Louis Padnos | 10.8% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.