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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Salve Regina University3.92+6.97vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.72+6.86vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.50+2.90vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90+4.28vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.19+1.95vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.62+3.55vs Predicted
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7Washington College3.65+2.32vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96-0.17vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-2.75vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.87+2.29vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.70-1.77vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.40-1.78vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.61-3.46vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.78-5.11vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.18-3.85vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.34-5.39vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-6.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.97Salve Regina University3.920.1%1st Place
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8.86Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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5.9Harvard University4.500.1%1st Place
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8.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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6.95Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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9.32Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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7.83St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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12.29University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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9.23Tufts University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.22Brown University3.400.0%1st Place
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9.54Roger Williams University3.610.0%1st Place
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8.89College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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11.15Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Naval Academy3.340.0%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Pellegrini | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Oliver Toole | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| Tedd Himler | 12.4% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Sommer | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Joseph Morris | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Coleman Bowen | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| David Thompson | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Hughes | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 22.3% |
| Massimo Soriano | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% |
| Nikolas Osvalds | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.5% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Erik Bowers | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| John Renehan | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 12.7% | 13.5% |
| Devin Laviano | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.7% |
| Daniel Liberty | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.