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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University3.52+4.65vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.47+3.88vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.63+2.47vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.67+1.42vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+1.63vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.26+4.41vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.54+2.21vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology1.76+3.73vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.80-0.57vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-4.20vs Predicted
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11Washington College2.01+0.22vs Predicted
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12George Washington University3.41-5.87vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia1.31+0.36vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.02-2.77vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University1.06-1.08vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.82-4.20vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.14-6.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65Fordham University3.520.1%1st Place
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5.88Georgetown University3.470.1%1st Place
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5.47U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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5.42Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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6.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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10.41Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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9.21Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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11.73Stevens Institute of Technology1.760.0%1st Place
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8.43University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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5.8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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11.22Washington College2.010.0%1st Place
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6.13George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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13.36University of Virginia1.310.0%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.020.0%1st Place
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13.92Syracuse University1.060.0%1st Place
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11.8Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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10.71SUNY Maritime College2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Holz | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Golden | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eddie Cox | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 2.9% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| Matthew Roleke | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Markus Edegran | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 6.4% |
| Kai Friesecke | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Gowell | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 23.5% |
| Austin Neuman | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 6.3% |
| Barrie Joanna | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 34.4% |
| Anders Hudson | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 8.8% |
| John Lawless | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.