Race 1A

mendums-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Florian Eenkema Van Dijk 11.3% 11.0% 12.6% 9.0% 11.5% 11.4% 9.6% 9.3% 5.7% 4.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Ben Brown 4.7% 4.9% 6.0% 6.6% 6.6% 7.5% 9.5% 11.0% 9.9% 10.8% 12.3% 8.7% 1.5%
Gabriel Elstrodt 21.5% 17.9% 14.7% 13.0% 10.2% 8.3% 5.6% 5.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Logan Russell 10.4% 11.5% 11.3% 11.7% 10.5% 10.5% 10.8% 7.1% 6.9% 5.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Chris Colbeth 4.7% 4.5% 4.8% 6.9% 8.1% 6.2% 7.6% 10.2% 10.2% 12.9% 11.6% 10.7% 1.6%
Sam Alexander 15.9% 17.1% 17.2% 11.8% 11.0% 9.3% 6.1% 4.6% 3.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Noah Brayer 3.4% 2.5% 3.2% 4.4% 5.0% 4.6% 4.4% 7.8% 9.3% 11.2% 14.6% 24.5% 5.1%
Zachary Vickerson 4.9% 6.6% 6.6% 6.9% 8.3% 8.2% 10.1% 10.8% 12.0% 12.0% 7.7% 5.1% 0.8%
John Duncan 3.6% 2.8% 3.4% 4.4% 4.4% 5.9% 7.1% 6.4% 10.0% 11.9% 15.6% 19.6% 4.9%
Molly Pleskus 10.2% 10.3% 8.6% 12.8% 9.6% 9.3% 9.9% 9.2% 6.7% 5.8% 6.0% 1.5% 0.1%
John Cappetta 6.1% 7.8% 6.9% 8.7% 8.8% 11.0% 10.5% 9.2% 10.5% 8.3% 7.1% 4.8% 0.3%
Nathaniel Wiener 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 2.8% 7.8% 82.2%
George Luber 3.2% 2.8% 4.2% 3.7% 5.6% 7.2% 7.8% 8.1% 11.2% 12.8% 15.2% 14.9% 3.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.