Race 4A

mendums-pond-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sam Alexander 17.3% 15.9% 14.0% 12.6% 12.2% 8.6% 7.0% 5.9% 3.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Gabriel Elstrodt 20.5% 18.8% 14.9% 13.4% 11.1% 8.4% 5.2% 3.9% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Florian Eenkema Van Dijk 10.0% 11.2% 13.2% 11.5% 9.8% 10.8% 10.5% 7.7% 6.7% 5.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Logan Russell 10.8% 10.8% 10.5% 13.0% 10.3% 9.2% 11.1% 7.9% 8.1% 4.2% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2%
Ben Brown 5.7% 4.5% 5.8% 6.3% 8.2% 7.8% 7.6% 9.7% 11.4% 11.8% 10.8% 9.4% 1.0%
Molly Pleskus 9.4% 10.2% 11.2% 10.3% 11.5% 10.0% 9.6% 8.4% 7.6% 6.4% 3.5% 1.8% 0.1%
Chris Colbeth 5.4% 4.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 7.2% 11.4% 10.3% 11.5% 13.9% 9.7% 1.5%
Noah Brayer 2.2% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 4.9% 5.2% 8.3% 9.9% 11.6% 15.2% 24.6% 4.8%
George Luber 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 5.3% 5.4% 6.6% 7.0% 8.7% 10.1% 13.4% 14.3% 15.9% 2.9%
John Cappetta 6.9% 6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 9.2% 11.2% 10.1% 8.7% 10.4% 9.4% 7.7% 5.3% 1.2%
Zachary Vickerson 5.4% 6.9% 7.2% 7.1% 8.4% 9.9% 11.5% 10.5% 10.0% 9.9% 7.4% 5.2% 0.6%
John Duncan 2.6% 3.1% 3.3% 4.7% 4.3% 5.7% 6.9% 8.1% 8.7% 11.7% 17.0% 20.2% 3.7%
Nathaniel Wiener 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 1.2% 1.7% 2.9% 6.6% 83.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.