Race 5A

mendums-pond-invite

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
John Cappetta 6.4% 7.0% 6.0% 8.8% 9.1% 9.0% 8.8% 11.0% 10.3% 9.6% 9.2% 4.1% 0.7%
Ben Brown 4.8% 4.4% 6.0% 7.3% 6.0% 8.1% 8.9% 9.8% 11.6% 11.1% 11.6% 8.9% 1.5%
Florian Eenkema Van Dijk 10.2% 10.4% 13.3% 11.2% 12.7% 8.6% 10.2% 9.1% 6.0% 5.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sam Alexander 16.6% 15.9% 15.1% 12.8% 10.7% 8.6% 8.9% 5.2% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0%
George Luber 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.7% 6.9% 6.7% 7.8% 7.8% 10.0% 13.6% 12.7% 15.1% 2.6%
Gabriel Elstrodt 20.0% 21.6% 14.3% 12.1% 11.1% 6.6% 6.5% 4.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Molly Pleskus 10.8% 9.9% 10.2% 10.8% 9.1% 12.6% 8.0% 8.9% 9.0% 5.3% 3.3% 1.9% 0.2%
Chris Colbeth 3.9% 4.9% 6.2% 4.3% 6.2% 7.7% 9.6% 8.5% 10.9% 12.9% 12.2% 11.8% 0.9%
John Duncan 3.1% 4.2% 2.9% 4.5% 4.4% 5.7% 6.1% 7.7% 9.0% 12.5% 16.3% 19.3% 4.3%
Logan Russell 12.3% 9.9% 10.8% 13.1% 10.7% 10.2% 8.5% 8.1% 6.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Noah Brayer 2.3% 1.9% 4.4% 3.2% 4.8% 5.9% 5.9% 7.9% 9.4% 11.4% 15.8% 22.1% 5.0%
Zachary Vickerson 5.1% 5.5% 6.7% 7.0% 8.0% 9.3% 10.5% 10.7% 10.2% 9.6% 9.4% 6.7% 1.3%
Nathaniel Wiener 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 2.9% 7.3% 83.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.