Race 6A

mendums-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Gabriel Elstrodt 20.9% 17.3% 16.8% 13.7% 9.1% 8.4% 5.8% 4.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Logan Russell 10.0% 11.6% 11.0% 11.9% 12.1% 10.9% 9.0% 7.4% 7.1% 5.0% 2.7% 1.2% 0.1%
Florian Eenkema Van Dijk 9.3% 12.6% 12.9% 11.2% 9.2% 10.4% 11.0% 9.1% 6.3% 4.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Sam Alexander 16.7% 15.6% 15.1% 12.7% 10.8% 8.9% 8.2% 5.8% 3.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Chris Colbeth 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 7.0% 6.7% 7.5% 8.5% 7.4% 10.5% 12.2% 12.8% 11.0% 1.8%
Zachary Vickerson 6.7% 5.2% 6.9% 8.4% 8.2% 8.2% 9.3% 11.5% 10.6% 8.9% 10.2% 5.3% 0.6%
Molly Pleskus 10.9% 10.7% 9.9% 9.1% 10.4% 11.1% 10.1% 8.0% 7.8% 5.6% 4.5% 1.7% 0.2%
John Duncan 2.9% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.7% 5.8% 6.6% 9.9% 10.0% 11.6% 14.1% 20.7% 2.2%
John Cappetta 6.2% 5.7% 7.6% 7.1% 10.1% 8.6% 8.8% 11.2% 9.9% 10.2% 8.3% 5.2% 1.1%
George Luber 4.6% 3.8% 4.1% 4.1% 5.5% 6.5% 7.2% 9.1% 10.9% 11.6% 13.9% 14.8% 3.9%
Noah Brayer 2.3% 2.9% 2.8% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 6.7% 6.9% 9.5% 13.2% 14.6% 22.0% 5.0%
Ben Brown 4.3% 5.2% 4.6% 6.1% 8.2% 8.0% 7.7% 9.1% 11.0% 11.8% 12.4% 10.2% 1.4%
Nathaniel Wiener 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 2.6% 2.8% 6.4% 83.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.