Race 1B

mendums-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Reed Lorimer 15.8% 12.8% 13.1% 12.9% 13.2% 12.0% 7.7% 6.3% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Taylor Nathanson 14.5% 13.5% 14.9% 13.0% 11.6% 10.7% 9.1% 7.1% 3.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierre DuPont 5.5% 7.5% 8.8% 10.2% 9.5% 12.0% 11.2% 11.6% 11.4% 7.8% 3.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Amanda Sommi 9.5% 10.1% 10.9% 12.4% 9.6% 13.0% 11.3% 11.0% 6.5% 4.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Quinn Andersen 18.1% 17.7% 14.7% 11.4% 12.7% 9.1% 7.8% 5.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Franco Bilik 16.8% 17.8% 15.9% 12.3% 12.6% 7.8% 8.4% 4.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander Baskin 5.4% 4.2% 5.0% 7.5% 6.6% 6.5% 9.5% 12.7% 15.4% 13.7% 10.1% 3.0% 0.4%
William Manning 2.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.4% 4.8% 5.6% 8.0% 9.6% 12.4% 20.1% 18.9% 6.9% 0.6%
Amy Macdonald 1.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 3.9% 3.3% 5.0% 6.4% 8.9% 15.7% 30.2% 15.5% 2.8%
Bobby McLaughlin 5.7% 5.7% 5.2% 7.8% 8.3% 10.9% 11.2% 10.7% 13.0% 11.3% 8.1% 1.8% 0.3%
Braden Foster 3.8% 3.7% 5.7% 6.6% 6.3% 8.1% 8.4% 12.2% 16.9% 13.9% 10.3% 3.7% 0.4%
Vick Xu 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 2.2% 1.7% 5.6% 9.2% 39.6% 38.0%
Molly Gallagher 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 1.8% 2.1% 6.9% 28.5% 57.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.