Race 2B

mendums-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Taylor Nathanson 14.4% 15.0% 13.2% 13.6% 10.4% 11.3% 9.7% 6.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Amanda Sommi 9.7% 10.0% 12.5% 9.9% 12.5% 12.5% 9.1% 10.0% 7.1% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Franco Bilik 17.9% 15.7% 13.6% 13.3% 11.3% 11.1% 8.1% 5.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Reed Lorimer 14.3% 14.4% 13.0% 14.4% 11.8% 11.4% 7.8% 5.9% 4.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Bobby McLaughlin 5.9% 5.7% 6.9% 8.0% 8.6% 7.5% 12.1% 12.6% 12.2% 11.8% 7.2% 1.3% 0.2%
Pierre DuPont 8.0% 7.4% 9.3% 8.2% 10.5% 10.0% 12.8% 10.4% 10.1% 8.5% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1%
William Manning 3.5% 2.7% 3.9% 4.4% 5.4% 6.4% 5.6% 9.6% 13.5% 18.4% 19.1% 6.4% 1.1%
Alexander Baskin 3.7% 5.2% 5.5% 5.2% 6.4% 8.7% 10.5% 11.4% 15.3% 13.6% 12.0% 2.1% 0.4%
Quinn Andersen 16.8% 17.4% 14.5% 13.5% 11.2% 9.0% 8.4% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Amy Macdonald 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.6% 3.7% 3.1% 4.5% 7.6% 11.2% 16.5% 27.0% 14.8% 3.1%
Braden Foster 3.6% 3.9% 5.0% 5.8% 6.8% 8.2% 9.3% 12.9% 13.6% 15.9% 11.0% 3.7% 0.3%
Molly Gallagher 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.4% 1.6% 2.5% 6.9% 27.5% 57.5%
Vick Xu 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.6% 1.1% 2.5% 3.1% 9.3% 42.4% 37.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.