Race 3B

mendums-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Reed Lorimer 15.7% 13.9% 14.5% 13.8% 12.8% 11.4% 8.6% 3.7% 3.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Taylor Nathanson 15.4% 14.6% 14.9% 15.6% 11.3% 9.7% 7.0% 6.7% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinn Andersen 18.7% 17.1% 16.6% 13.0% 10.8% 11.1% 6.5% 3.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Julia Fuller 4.2% 5.4% 5.4% 6.5% 9.0% 8.4% 11.5% 13.4% 12.7% 11.6% 9.1% 2.4% 0.4%
Pierre DuPont 8.4% 9.0% 9.6% 9.2% 10.0% 11.7% 10.9% 11.3% 9.3% 6.3% 3.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Bobby McLaughlin 5.5% 5.9% 7.5% 8.0% 9.3% 9.8% 10.0% 14.5% 11.5% 10.4% 6.0% 1.5% 0.1%
Franco Bilik 19.1% 17.8% 14.8% 14.6% 11.6% 7.4% 7.0% 4.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
William Manning 2.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8% 5.7% 6.1% 8.5% 10.4% 13.3% 16.5% 18.3% 6.1% 0.8%
Alexander Baskin 4.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.2% 7.4% 8.1% 13.0% 10.6% 13.4% 13.0% 11.3% 2.8% 0.4%
Braden Foster 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 6.0% 6.9% 9.2% 9.7% 11.5% 13.7% 13.6% 11.0% 3.9% 0.9%
Amy Macdonald 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% 3.3% 4.2% 5.6% 5.4% 6.7% 11.5% 17.6% 23.2% 13.8% 3.2%
Molly Gallagher 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 1.8% 2.7% 6.6% 27.8% 57.0%
Vick Xu 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 2.1% 2.8% 3.7% 9.1% 41.0% 37.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.