Race 4B

mendums-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Reed Lorimer 16.5% 13.6% 14.3% 13.1% 13.0% 10.4% 8.8% 5.4% 2.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Taylor Nathanson 15.7% 14.7% 14.7% 13.6% 12.8% 10.2% 7.6% 6.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Pierre DuPont 6.0% 9.0% 8.8% 9.9% 11.6% 12.3% 10.8% 11.2% 9.7% 7.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Franco Bilik 18.2% 16.5% 16.2% 13.5% 12.1% 9.3% 6.7% 3.9% 2.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Julia Fuller 5.3% 5.0% 5.8% 8.3% 8.4% 8.4% 11.2% 10.8% 13.1% 12.8% 8.2% 2.4% 0.3%
Quinn Andersen 18.0% 21.4% 14.5% 12.8% 11.0% 8.1% 7.2% 3.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
William Manning 3.8% 2.7% 4.0% 5.3% 5.3% 6.3% 6.3% 10.0% 14.4% 16.3% 18.3% 6.2% 1.1%
Alexander Baskin 4.6% 4.7% 5.2% 5.7% 7.1% 9.4% 11.6% 12.9% 12.5% 13.0% 10.8% 2.1% 0.4%
Bobby McLaughlin 5.3% 6.2% 6.7% 8.6% 6.6% 11.6% 12.7% 10.5% 12.2% 11.2% 6.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Amy Macdonald 1.8% 1.5% 3.3% 2.9% 2.7% 4.6% 4.9% 8.2% 10.8% 16.6% 25.5% 14.2% 3.0%
Braden Foster 4.3% 3.9% 6.1% 5.1% 8.3% 7.9% 10.7% 14.0% 13.1% 12.8% 10.0% 3.5% 0.3%
Molly Gallagher 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 1.2% 1.8% 2.1% 7.2% 27.1% 57.4%
Vick Xu 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.1% 9.2% 42.0% 37.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.