Race 5B

mendums-pond-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Franco Bilik 16.6% 17.8% 14.0% 13.7% 12.2% 9.7% 7.7% 4.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
William Manning 2.5% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 7.1% 6.1% 9.7% 14.2% 17.6% 19.8% 7.0% 0.8%
Reed Lorimer 14.2% 13.2% 14.8% 13.3% 11.7% 10.6% 8.3% 7.9% 3.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Amanda Sommi 11.7% 8.1% 11.2% 13.4% 11.0% 10.5% 11.0% 9.2% 7.0% 5.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Bobby McLaughlin 5.9% 5.9% 5.2% 8.8% 10.3% 7.5% 11.9% 11.9% 12.6% 10.7% 7.6% 1.5% 0.2%
Taylor Nathanson 15.2% 15.0% 15.0% 11.4% 12.9% 11.0% 6.5% 7.0% 3.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinn Andersen 16.7% 17.7% 15.2% 13.9% 10.9% 9.7% 6.4% 5.0% 3.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Alexander Baskin 3.8% 5.1% 5.0% 5.7% 5.0% 9.3% 11.3% 12.5% 13.5% 14.8% 11.3% 2.4% 0.3%
Pierre DuPont 7.3% 7.0% 8.1% 7.7% 9.8% 12.7% 12.7% 11.4% 10.4% 8.7% 3.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Amy Macdonald 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 3.8% 2.9% 5.2% 6.8% 11.3% 15.6% 27.7% 15.3% 3.0%
Braden Foster 3.6% 4.2% 5.0% 5.6% 6.9% 7.9% 10.3% 12.4% 14.4% 14.6% 10.6% 4.2% 0.3%
Molly Gallagher 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 1.6% 3.2% 6.5% 27.3% 57.7%
Vick Xu 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 1.3% 2.6% 3.8% 9.6% 41.0% 37.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.