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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+5.73vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.36+3.66vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.80+4.90vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.62+4.62vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+3.68vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+2.86vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.37+2.62vs Predicted
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8Tufts University4.08-1.31vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.31+1.07vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.95-2.83vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.54+1.77vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-4.36vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.23-2.68vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-4.66vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.29-1.56vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-8.37vs Predicted
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18Stanford University3.08-7.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.73Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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5.66Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.9Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.62University of Rhode Island3.620.1%1st Place
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8.68St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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8.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.0%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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6.69Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.07Roger Williams University3.310.0%1st Place
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7.17College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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12.77Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
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7.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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10.32Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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9.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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13.44Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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8.63Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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10.86Stanford University3.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Brendan Kopp | 12.8% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Carmody | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Frederick Whitman | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| William Haeger | 11.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% |
| Ben Spector | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Robert Lippincott | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 24.2% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 34.3% |
| Eamon Glackin | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Eliza Richartz | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.