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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+7.44vs Predicted
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2Tufts University4.08+4.70vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+5.86vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.66vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.80+2.66vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.29+7.65vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.37+2.68vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College4.05-1.22vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-0.25vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University2.54+2.69vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.23-0.68vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-2.83vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.31-3.04vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.08-3.08vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.95-7.75vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.62-7.36vs Predicted
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18Harvard University4.36-12.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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6.7Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.86St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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7.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.66Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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13.65Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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9.68U. S. Naval Academy3.370.0%1st Place
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6.78Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.0%1st Place
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12.69Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
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10.32Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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9.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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9.96Roger Williams University3.310.0%1st Place
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10.92Stanford University3.080.0%1st Place
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7.25College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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8.64University of Rhode Island3.620.1%1st Place
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5.88Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kana | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| William Haeger | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Frederick Whitman | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 16.4% | 34.5% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% |
| Matthew Wefer | 10.8% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Eamon Glackin | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Robert Lippincott | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 22.4% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 5.3% |
| Eliza Richartz | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 9.2% |
| Ben Spector | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Carmody | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Brendan Kopp | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.