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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.80+6.68vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+6.60vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.36+2.74vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.62vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.62+3.32vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63+2.72vs Predicted
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7Tufts University4.08-0.29vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.95-0.90vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.31+1.01vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University2.54+2.67vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College4.05-4.02vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.05-1.19vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.37-3.24vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-4.72vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56-6.22vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.08-5.27vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.29-3.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.68Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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5.74Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.32University of Rhode Island3.620.1%1st Place
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8.72Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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6.71Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.1College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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10.01Roger Williams University3.310.0%1st Place
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12.67Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
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6.98Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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10.81Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.76U. S. Naval Academy3.370.0%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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8.78St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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10.73Stanford University3.080.0%1st Place
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13.49Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Segerblom | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Kana | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| Brendan Kopp | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Matthew Carmody | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Eamon Glackin | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| William Haeger | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Ben Spector | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 4.8% |
| Robert Lippincott | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Drew Shea | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 8.9% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| Frederick Whitman | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| Eliza Richartz | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 15.0% | 35.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.