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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.39vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.80+5.80vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56+5.82vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.37+5.62vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.62+3.35vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College4.05+1.07vs Predicted
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7Tufts University4.08-0.20vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University2.54+4.35vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.29+4.66vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-1.56vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-1.65vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.31-2.21vs Predicted
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13Harvard University4.36-7.18vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.95-6.63vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.05-4.19vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.08-5.20vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60-9.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.8Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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9.62U. S. Naval Academy3.370.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Rhode Island3.620.1%1st Place
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7.07Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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6.8Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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12.35Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
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13.66Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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8.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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9.79Roger Williams University3.310.0%1st Place
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5.82Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.37College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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10.81Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.8Stanford University3.080.0%1st Place
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8.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Frederick Whitman | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% |
| Matthew Carmody | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| William Haeger | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Robert Lippincott | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 17.6% | 20.2% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 35.5% |
| Eamon Glackin | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 3.3% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% |
| Brendan Kopp | 12.4% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Spector | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Drew Shea | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% |
| Eliza Richartz | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% |
| Patrick Kana | 4.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.