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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.36vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63+6.49vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.36+2.73vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+4.71vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.80+2.63vs Predicted
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6Tufts University4.08+0.91vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.95+0.23vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+0.95vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.31+1.02vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.05+0.72vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College4.05-3.96vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.62-3.44vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.56-4.06vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.08-3.11vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University2.54-2.38vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.29-2.46vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy3.37-7.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.1%1st Place
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5.73Harvard University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.1%1st Place
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7.63Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.91Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.23College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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10.02Roger Williams University3.310.0%1st Place
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10.72Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.04Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.56University of Rhode Island3.620.1%1st Place
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8.94St. Mary's College of Maryland3.560.1%1st Place
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10.89Stanford University3.080.0%1st Place
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12.62Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
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13.54Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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9.66U. S. Naval Academy3.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Norfleet | 9.0% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Eamon Glackin | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Brendan Kopp | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Kana | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| William Haeger | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Ben Spector | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.0% |
| Drew Shea | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Carmody | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Frederick Whitman | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Eliza Richartz | 2.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.4% |
| Robert Lippincott | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 23.0% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 32.7% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.