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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+8.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.33+7.15vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+1.66vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.74+3.74vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.05+1.43vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin3.04+0.80vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.61+1.17vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.21-2.03vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.60-0.56vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-0.90vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University1.00+2.55vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.38-6.34vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.71-1.66vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63-5.81vs Predicted
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15University of Washington1.11-1.66vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.50-3.99vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.75-9.32vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University0.51-3.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.1University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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9.15U. S. Naval Academy2.330.0%1st Place
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4.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.2%1st Place
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7.74Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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6.43Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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6.8University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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8.17Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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5.97Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.44College of Charleston2.600.0%1st Place
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9.1University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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13.55Northwestern University1.000.0%1st Place
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5.66Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.34Christopher Newport University1.710.0%1st Place
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8.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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13.34University of Washington1.110.0%1st Place
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12.01Eckerd College1.500.0%1st Place
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7.68Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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14.76Texas A&M University0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Staff | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Hannah Hughes | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 16.2% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Casey Klingler | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Wefer | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Williams | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Dahl | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Simone Staff | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Katherine O'Donnell | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 18.7% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 12.5% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Attardi | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Carter | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kate Flanagan | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 19.7% | 19.6% | 0.0% |
| Anna Huebschmann | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Ladd | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Erin Hawk | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 21.1% | 41.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.