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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+6.14vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.38+6.22vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+8.56vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.42+3.79vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.99+4.63vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.29+6.67vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin3.04+2.51vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+1.36vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.03+0.55vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.35-1.59vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.73-0.03vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.05-2.12vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College3.06-3.67vs Predicted
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14Stanford University2.90-4.26vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.58-3.57vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island3.84-9.76vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College3.21-8.09vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University2.74-7.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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8.22Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.0%1st Place
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7.79Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.63University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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12.67University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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9.51University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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9.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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9.55Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.030.0%1st Place
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8.41Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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10.97College of Charleston2.730.0%1st Place
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9.88Yale University3.050.0%1st Place
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9.33Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.74Stanford University2.900.1%1st Place
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11.43George Washington University2.580.0%1st Place
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6.24University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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8.91Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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10.67Georgetown University2.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Bailey Carter | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 12.4% | 10.0% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Megan Yeigh | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% |
| Simone Staff | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 20.6% |
| Laura Wefer | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Carolyn Smith | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% |
| Rosalind Lesh | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Allyson Donahue | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Elizabeth Pemberton | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% |
| Casey Klingler | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Erin Mullins | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| Julia Lambert | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% |
| Miranda Bakos | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% |
| Rachel Bryer | 11.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Williams | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.